The Supreme Courtroom of India on Monday dismissed petitions filed by Vodafone Concept (Vi), Bharti Airtel (Airtel), and Tata Telecom (which previously operated telecom companies below the model Docomo), in search of a waiver of curiosity, penalties, and curiosity on penalties on their adjusted gross income (AGR) dues. A Bench of Justices JB Pardiwala and R Mahadevan, stated that it was disturbed by the requests made by the telcos for aid on this matter. The Courtroom added that multinationals of such reputation can not knock its door with such misconceived petitions.
Additionally Learn: Vodafone Concept Approaches Supreme Courtroom After Indian Authorities Rejects Dues Aid
Supreme Courtroom Verdict: No Aid on AGR Dues
The bench clarified that it could not forestall any government-led intervention, stating, “If the federal government needs that can assist you (the petitioners), we aren’t coming in your manner.”
Vodafone Concept had cited extreme money circulation points whereas in search of aid from the highest court docket. The corporate acknowledged in its utility that it could be unable to proceed operations with out monetary assist. It contended that the aid sought was essential to guard its viability, protect market competitors, and safeguard shopper pursuits.
Let’s now check out what analysts, brokerages, and business specialists have stated concerning the implications of the decision on Vodafone Concept’s future.
To SC: Vodafone Concept Seeks AGR Aid from Supreme Courtroom, Cites Sector-Vast Disaster
What Business Consultants Are Saying
1. Covasant
“This was the final straw on the camel’s again. Vi can nonetheless attempt to restructure extra debt to fairness however they’ve already executed that previously. It was unlikely that the corporate attracts any new investor contemplating Vi’s mammoth debt,” stated Subhendu Pattnaik, Chief Advertising and marketing Officer at Covasant, as quoted in a Hindu BusinessLine report dated Might 19.
Vi has a complete debt of Rs 1.7 lakh crore, of which it has to pay Rs 83,000 crore in AGR dues. Underneath a deferred fee scheme, Vi has to pay annual AGR funds of Rs 18,000 crore beginning in FY26—almost twice its present operational money era of Rs 9,200 crore.
As beforehand reported, banks have refused to problem contemporary loans to the operator, and the federal government has acknowledged it is not going to present additional monetary help after changing Rs 36,950 crore of debt into fairness. In an earlier interview, the Union Minister of Communications made it clear that the federal government just isn’t prepared to transform any extra dues into fairness.
Vi’s promoter group infused Rs 1,980 crore in December 2024, and in April of the identical 12 months, the corporate accomplished a follow-on public provide (FPO), elevating Rs 18,000 crore.
Additionally Learn: Vodafone Concept Should Clear Authorities Dues, Says Minister
2. inGovern
Shriram Subramanian, Founding father of inGovern, stated the corporate will now have to maneuver for voluntary chapter. “Shareholders of the corporate have stated they don’t seem to be going to take a position any new funds. If the federal government had agreed to waive the AGR dues that might have helped the corporate, however the court docket additionally doesn’t assist that concept. Each events have executed all they’ll,” stated Subramanian, based on the report.
Different specialists famous that placing the corporate by way of insolvency proceedings would yield little restoration, as its key property—subscribers, spectrum, and infrastructure—provide restricted salvage worth. Spectrum will be reacquired in auctions, subscribers can change operators by way of quantity portability, and most infrastructure is leased somewhat than owned.
Additionally Learn: Bharti Airtel Approaches Supreme Courtroom Searching for AGR Aid
3. Former Bharti Airtel CEO
In an interplay with CNBC-TV18 on Tuesday, former Bharti Airtel CEO Sanjay Kapoor described Vodafone Concept’s scenario as ‘precarious’ and added that “it’s unlikely that the federal government would wish to cross the 51 % shareholding threshold in Vodafone Concept, as they have already got a BSNL and MTNL to take care off.”
When requested whether or not the Nationwide Firm Regulation Tribunal (NCLT) may be the endgame for Vodafone Concept, Kapoor reportedly stated: “The corporate had already warned that it will be unable to proceed past the present monetary 12 months 2026 if it doesn’t get any additional assist from the federal government.”
“The very fact is that immediately, the 2 main operators are nibbling into the market share of VIL irrespective. So when they’re rising on value, they’re additionally rising in the marketplace share positive aspects that they’ve from VIL. So why would they make investments and purchase such an organization? So I do not see anybody of these two going forward and merge it with us. And now we have seen up to now that Vodafone and Concept’s merger didn’t click on,” Kapoor stated, responding to a query about whether or not Reliance Jio or Bharti Airtel would possibly take into account merging Vodafone Concept with their operations.
The previous Bharti Airtel CEO reportedly defined additional that Vodafone Concept would have knocked on the doorways on each operator and investor globally, whether or not minority or majority, however there was no traction on that entrance. “Whether or not minority or majority. I am certain they might have been open to all, however now we have not seen anyone come. The American operators have been right here, they left and went away. So everyone is aware of the place,” Kapoor reportedly stated.
“The world over now, the third operator and fourth operator, due to the extra frequent capital cycles, have gotten lesser aggressive. Now, you make investments into a 3rd operator, even when it is a big nation like India, your odds are in opposition to you. As a result of the 2 massive operators of the market have taken the pole place. So how do you compete with them?” Kapoor stated, as talked about within the report.
“The probabilities of any worldwide operator coming in and pumping cash into a 3rd operator who’s shedding market share appears somewhat tough to me,” he reportedly added.
4. Burgeon Regulation
“This successfully places the onus on the federal government to determine whether or not to increase additional aid to the telecom sector, which continues to reel below the monetary burden of huge AGR liabilities,” stated Ketan Mukhija, senior accomplice at Burgeon Regulation, based on a Moneycontrol report dated Might 20, 2025. With the court docket’s place now clear, the Centre has the authorized room to revisit its aid method, he added.
The ruling definitively ends telcos’ makes an attempt to problem curiosity and penalty parts of the AGR dues by way of the court docket course of, the report stated.
To DoT: Vodafone Concept Says It Can’t Function Past FY 2025–26 as Banks Refuse Loans
5. Little & Co
In accordance with Ajay Khatlawala, managing accomplice at Little & Co,the manager department should now take any additional steps, as authorized cures have been exhausted. “Telecom corporations should now search assist by highlighting that their difficulties are systemic in nature and require complete regulatory and monetary options to make sure the business’s sustainability and continued competitiveness,” Khatlawala reportedly stated.
In accordance with the telcos’ self-assessment, complete AGR dues stand at roughly USD 1.57 billion for Bharti and USD 2.59 billion for Vodafone Concept. Correcting calculation errors may considerably cut back the at the moment reported AGR liabilities of round USD 4.65 billion and USD 9.16 billion, respectively.
6. Citi Analysis
In a Might 20 observe titled Dismissal of AGR Petition – Satan is within the Particulars?, Citi Analysis stated it was “shocking” that Vodafone Concept after which Bharti Airtel had moved contemporary petitions at this stage. “This makes us marvel if that is really the end result that the businesses and authorities had been maybe hoping for and whether or not this now paves the way in which for the federal government to supply AGR aid whereas staying compliant with Courtroom orders,” the report acknowledged.
7. IIFL Capital
IIFL Capital, in a separate observe, stated the federal government nonetheless has a number of choices. The Division of Telecommunications can file a modification plea within the Supreme Courtroom to acquire a proper order allowing such aid. This might permit the federal government to waive 50 % of the curiosity and 100% of the penalties and curiosity on penalties associated to AGR dues—measures reportedly into account earlier.
Moreover, the federal government may prolong the AGR fee timeline, offering money circulation aid to telecom operators, and in addition take into account correcting errors in AGR calculations.
“If the federal government waives curiosity, penalties, and curiosity on penalties, our estimates recommend that Bharti Airtel’s and Vodafone Concept’s annual money payouts would decline by roughly USD 900 million and USD 1.17 billion, respectively. Additional, if the AGR fee deadline is prolonged from FY31 to FY51, the annual money outflows for Bharti and Vi between FY26 and FY31 may fall by USD 578 million and USD 1.13 billion, respectively,” IIFL famous.
“Even with potential aid, Vi’s working money circulation earlier than curiosity funds—estimated at USD 1.48 billion in FY26 and USD 1.89 billion in FY27—can be inadequate to satisfy regulatory payouts of USD 1.07 billion and USD 1.34 billion in these respective years, along with curiosity prices and capital expenditures. The federal government could finally must both prolong the moratorium or enhance its fairness stake in Vodafone Concept,” IIFL reportedly stated.
Additionally Learn: Authorities Stake in Vodafone Concept Rises to 48.99 P.c After Recent Fairness Allotment
Vodafone Concept and the Telecom Sector
Vodafone Concept, which owes Rs 83,400 crore in AGR dues, had sought a waiver on Rs 45,000 crore associated to curiosity, penalties, and curiosity on penalties. Bharti Airtel and its subsidiary Bharti Hexacom sought aid on Rs 34,745 crore of their complete Rs 43,980 crore legal responsibility.
In its Might 13 plea, Vodafone Concept warned that with out financial institution funding, it could not be capable to perform past FY2026. “It’s humbly submitted that with out financial institution funding, the petitioner firm will be unable to function past FY 2025-26, because it doesn’t have the power to pay AGR instalment of Rs 18,000 crore as per DoT calls for due in March 2026,” the corporate informed the Courtroom, based on earlier studies.
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